Paul J. Shea

Dowling Family Professor of Economics



Pettengill Hall, Room 270


Paul Shea’s primary research interests lie within macroeconomic theory. He is especially interested in the macroeconomic effects of incomplete or faulty information. Two recent papers examine how speculative bubbles can destabilize either the aggregate economy or asset prices. Another paper finds that if firms are averse to inflation risk, then monetary policy should seek to prevent inflation so that firms do not engage in excessive levels of financial activity. He occasionally writes papers in microeconomics on such topics as how bookies set point spreads, how juries quantify reasonable doubt in criminal trials, and why dueling persisted in the Antebellum South.

He has taught classes in macroeconomic theory at several different levels, and especially enjoys teaching a small seminar that focuses on the recent macroeconomic downturn.

Ph.D. in Economics, University of Oregon
B.A. in Economics, Cornell University

Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Time-Series Econometrics

Selected publications:
“Learning By Doing, Short-Sightedness, and Indeterminacy.” 2013. Economic Journal, Vol. 123(569): 738-763.

“A Note on Bubbles, Worthless Assets, and the Curious Case of General Motors.” 2014. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 18(1), 244-254 . with Tom Ahn and Jeremy Sandford.

“Optimal Setting of Point Spreads.” 2013. Economica. Vol. 80 (317): 149-170. with Jeremy Sandford.

“Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account.” 2010. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vlo. 34 (2): 179-190. with Ron Davies.